@Allyww3 I agree with everything you just said, however you forgot that the MC gets double experience if he fishes and she cooks what he catches so for an early skill it's probably not a bad selection. Medicine can only really be useful if the materials are available or someone is hurt so it's limited in the early XP game. Blacksmithing also requires expensive materials and equipment which the MC may not have access to.
However, if it wasn't a "gamified" situation, I would also choose medicine followed by blacksmithing.
However, if it wasn't a "gamified" situation, I would also choose medicine followed by blacksmithing.